Weather, Climate, and Society

Droughts, hurricanes, and other powerful weather events cost societies billions of dollars every year and often claim numerous lives. Yet few societies make sufficient plans for natural disasters. Farmers continue to plant in areas prone to drought, developers build in floodplains and along fragile coastlines, and cities expand in arid areas, such as the American Southwest, that face chronic shortages of water.

Research indicates that policy makers could reduce the impact of natural disasters by paying more attention to the importance of both extreme weather events and long-term climate trends. For example, cities can better prepare for heat waves--which have killed thousands of elderly residents in recent years--through such strategies as painting rooftops white or planting more trees. Similarly, farmers in drought-prone regions can be encouraged to plant less water-intensive crops. Many cities and regions can better support citizens who suffer losses in disasters by improving the social safety networks that provide immediate local response.

One NCAR social scientist is working to promote interdisciplinary education and training programs in climate affairs at universities and other institutions that encompass the sensitive interplay of climate, society, and the environment. Such programs focus on training current and future policy makers and others in the many facets of climate science and policy , ranging from economics and the law to water resources and agriculture. Climate affairs training is particularly vital for developing countries whose economies are most vulnerable to climate variations.

What are the costs and benefits to society of improved weather and climate forecasting? NCAR researchers are developing ways to evaluate the extent to which improved forecasts benefit society. Examples where society could benefit from improvements not only in forecasts but in how they are used include

Protecting society from major storms, such as the so-called Superstorm of March 1993 that caught many residents off guard as it swept through the eastern United States, much of Cuba, and parts of Canada.
Alerting leaders to climate shifts, such as El Niño, the periodic warming of regions of the Pacific Ocean that causes weather changes throughout much of the world.
Devising strategies to cope with global warming and other aspects of climate change, which is expected to cause warmer temperatures throughout much of the world, along with such possible related impacts as droughts, wildfires, and changes in vegetation.

Scientists expect that weather and climate patterns will change significantly as the average global temperature increases over the next century because of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. NCAR researchers and collaborators are testing the ability of computer models to assess how a changing climate, with different temperatures and precipitation patterns, will affect agriculture across the continental United States. Using a finer-scale model than earlier studies employed, the team found varying effects of climate change by region. For example, in the U.S. Southeast, all crops other than cotton are expected to do poorly by the year 2060, causing a loss of at least 20% of its agricultural economy.

Climate change may be felt most dramatically at higher latitudes. NCAR scientists have joined with university researchers and members of affected Alaskan communities to assess and prepare for the impacts of climate change in coming decades. Northern Alaskan communities are already experiencing environmental impacts, including rising sea levels, thinning sea ice, melting permafrost, and increasing coastal erosion from storm surges. These changes will have profound effects on everything from bowhead whale hunts to the stability of roads, utility lines, and, in some cases, whole villages. The project 's goal is to improve the level of information needed for decision making by fostering an exchange of knowledge about climate and environmental variability among the science team and local stakeholders, from community residents and businesses to National Weather Service forecasters.

NCAR scientists are also focusing on the effect of climate change and pollution on human health. A collaboration with Johns Hopkins University and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control examines the interactions among the physical, biological, ecological, and social systems that have an impact on human health. Important topics for this group include heat mortality and the impact that a warming world may have on the spread of diseases.

In related research, in 2003 NCAR cosponsored a workshop to foster more research into the impacts that cities around the world have on air quality and climate change . The intersection of two issues is calling attention to this topic. Urban areas are growing across the globe as people continue to leave rural areas in search of basic needs. And research continues to expand our understanding of the effects of air quality on human health and the environment.

By 2015, nearly half of the world's population will live in urban centers in developing countries, many of which lack stringent controls on air pollution. intensive training, follow-on research, and a final workshop Scientists from developing countries are now working on two-year projects conceived during intensive training at the 2003 workshop; additional activities will foster ongoing information exchange.

index | next >

This document can be found at
Subscribe to NCAR & UCAR RSS feeds at http://www.ucar.edu/news/rss