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Improving the Outlook: One to Ten DaysMost weather forecasts offered by the news media cover some part of the 1- to 10-day period. To produce these outlooks, forecasters examine the results from sophisticated models that simulate the weather up to 16 days out.
The scale of a model (national, regional, local) can play a huge role in the quality of its prediction. To examine this problem further, NCAR scientists have studied in depth a poorly predicted snowstorm that hit Washington, D.C., in January 2000. The results are now being extended through computer simulations. They may lead to a clearer picture of when model output is more reliable than at other times. Precipitation is a key element in weather forecasts. As part of the U.S. Weather Research Program, NCAR is working to improve forecasts of rain and snow, particularly in the situations where they matter most, such as a hurricane landfall. Among other findings, the team has gained new insight into repetitive summertime rainfall that can inundate parts of the United States over several days. Some of these multiday episodes appear to be sustained by processes yet to be depicted in models. This work is now being extended to other parts of the globe at risk from similar summertime episodes of heavy rain. An improved national-scale forecasting model is now being developed by NCAR and five collaborators. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) will bolster understanding and prediction and promote closer ties between researchers and forecasters. WRF will map weather features across the nation several days out, with a precision several times sharper than its predecessors. < previous | index | next >
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Despite their invaluable role in forecasting, computer models are
still unable to depict many aspects of day-to-day weather. NCAR
scientists explore the limits of modeling and how those limits
can be extended, as well as how and when forecasters should go
beyond model guidance.
