First THORPEX International Science Symposium - Montréal, CANADA
CROWNE PLAZA HOTEL
6-10 December 2004
MONDAY
9:00am Opening Session - Chair: Michel Béland
Welcome and Opening Remarks - Marc-Denis Everell, Deputy Minister, Meteorological Service of Canada
9:10am Local arrangements: Pierre Gauthier
9:20am Opening remarks on behalf of Secretary-General of WMO: Elena Manaenkova
9:30am Overview of Science Objectives of THORPEX and open discussion: Melvyn A. Shapiro and Alan Thorpe
11:00am THORPEX Implementation Plan: David Rogers
11:30am Perspective on THORPEX: Senior Members of Meteorological Services:
- Jean-Pierre Beysson, President Director General, Météo-France
- Philippe Bougeault, Director of Research, ECMWF
- Zheng Guoguang, Deputy Administrator of CMA, China
- Perspective on THORPEX: David Rogers, Chief Executive, Met Office, UK
- Rick Rosen, Assistant Administrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, NOAA
2:00pm Keynote Addresses - Chair: Dave Parsons
4:30pm THORPEX as a WWRP programme: Philippe Courtier
4:45pm ICSC Perspective on the Status of THORPEX: Michel Béland
Topic: International cooperation between the academic research community, operational centres and end-users through THORPEX
TUESDAY
8:30am-10:30am Session 3. Societal Impacts - Chairs: Rebecca Morss and Brian Mills
8:30am What is a High Impact Weather Forecast?: Brian Mills and Rebecca Morss
8:45am Using the Methods of Experimental Economics to Assess the Impact of Weather Forecasts on Decision Making: Mark S. Roulston, Gary E. Bolton, Andrew N. Kleit and Addison L. Sears-Collins
9:00am Societal Value of Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis: Jeffrey Lazo
9:15am Objective Techniques for Identifying Focal Points of High Impact Weather: Tim Hewson
9:30am New Methods for NWP Verification: Notes from the International Verification Methods Workshop: Laurence Wilson
9:45am Evaluating Optimal Level and Mix of Public Investment in Observations for Weather Prediction: Rebecca E. Morss and
Kathleen A. Miller
10:00am Benefits of Implementation of Thorpex in Chile (South America): Christian Rousseau
10:15am The West African Monsoon System and Its Socio-Economic Impacts: Aïda Diongue Niang
10:30am-11:00am Start of Poster Session 1
11:00am-11:30am Session 3. Societal Impacts (Cont.)
11:00am Year 2004 Rainfall Prediction and the Socio-Economic Implications for All States in Nigeria: L.E Akeh, Udoeka, Nnoli, Osaghede, Muyiolu, Ediang, Bankole, Aremu
11:15am Forecasting For Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Stations: Neil Gordon, Joint presentation with Leonard A. Smith
11:30am-12:30pm Session 4. Predictability: Hurricanes and ET - Chair: Jim Abraham
11:30am Challenges of Predicting High Impact Weather Associated with Extratropical Transition: Jim Abraham, Sarah Jones, Naoko Kitabatake, Sim Aberson, Jenni Evans, Chris Fogarty, Patrick Harr and Chris Velden
11:45am Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Analysis of Extra-Tropical Cyclone Transitions: Michael Morgan
12:00pm Evaluation of Cyclone Structure in Global Model Forecasts Using Cluster Analysis: Jenni Evans
12:15pm Predictability Associated with the Down-stream Impact of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Patrick Harr
2:00pm-2:45pm Session 4. Predictability: Hurricanes and ET (Cont.)
2:00pm Vortex Rossby Waves in Hurricanes: Their Importance for Numerical Weather Prediction: Gilbert Brunet
2:15pm Hurricane Juan (2003): Forecasting and Numerical Simulation: John Gyakum
2:30pm Ensemble Reforecasting: Tom Hamill and Jeff Whitaker
2:45pm-3:15pm Session 5. Observing System - Chairs: Chris Velden and Dave Parsons
2:45pm The 2004 Operational Synoptic Surveillance Missions: An Unprecedented Dataset for Tropical Cyclone Targeting Research: Sim Aberson
3:00pm A General Summary of Recent Observing System Experiments: Jean Pailleux, Horst Böttger and Paul Menzel
3:15pm-4:15pm Poster Session 1 (Cont.)
4:15pm-6:15pm Session 5. Observing System (Cont.)
4:15pm Global OSSEs at NCEP - Results of High Resolution Experiments: Michiko Masutani
4:30pm Observing System Simulation Experiments to Support THORPEX Mission Planning and Future Observing System Design: George Emmitt, R. Atlas and Z. Toth
4:45pm The Driftsonde Observing System: Terry Hock
5:00pm The Potential of an Airborne Doppler Lidar for Observations in Sensitive Regions: Martin Weissmann, S. Rahm, O. Reitebuch, R. Busen, A. Dörnbrack, G. Mayr and U. Schumann
5:15pm The Impact Study for Northern Asia: A current Status of Siberian RAOB Network and Suggestions to Redesign It by Maximizing the Information Content: Oleg Pokrovsky
5:30pm Invited Presentation - Advances in GPS-Meteorology and the National Research Council's Decadal Study on Priorities in Earth Science Observations from Space: Richard Anthes
6:00pm Observing System Discussion
6:15pm Adjourn
WEDNESDAY
8:30am-12:30pm Session 6. Data Assimilation - Chairs: Pierre Gauthier and Florence Rabier
8:30am Operational Implementation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter: Pieter L. Houtekamer, Herschel L. Mitchell, Gerard Pellerin, Lubos Spacek and Chantal Cote
8:45am Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP GFS: Thomas Hamill
9:00am Short Range Forecast Bias Correction by Sequential Data Assimilation: Kaustubha Bhattacharya
9:15am An ensemble Kalman Filter for WRF and a Comparison with the WRF Three Dimensional Variational Assimilation Scheme: Alain Caya
9:30am Efficient Assimilation of Atmospheric Data: A Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: Brian Hunt
9:45am Implementation of Unified 3D-Var system for GRAPES: Zhuang Shiyu, Xue Jishan, Zhu Zongshen, Zhu guofu and Chen Dehui
10:00am Use of Information Content Measures for Various Applications: Florence Rabier, N. Fourrie, B. Chapnik, G. Desroziers and D. Marchal
10:15am-1045am Start of Poster Session 2
10:45am Adjoint Sensitivities for Impact Assessment of Future Observing Systems: Gert-Jan Marseille, Ad Stoffelen and Jan Barkmeijer
11:00am The Influence of Routine Rawinsonde Observations on 3-7 Day Weather Forecasts Over North America and Europe: Sharanya Majumdar
11:15am Impact of Observing Systems and Predictability on Forecasting Extreme Weather Events: A Canadian Contribution to THORPEX: Pierre Gauthier
11:30am Targeted Observation Strategies in DOTSTAR: Chuin-Chieh Wu, Po-Hsiung Lin, Sim Aberson, Kun-Hsuan Chou, Tien-Chiang Yeh, Ming-Deng Cheng, Sharanya Majumdar, Melinda Peng and Carolyn Reynolds
11:45am Toward the Development of a Comprehensive Data Management and Information System for THORPEX: Mohan K. Ramamurthy and Steven F. Williams
12:00pm Data Assimilation discussion
2:00pm-3:15pm Session 7. Predictability and Dynamical Processes: Ensemble Forecasting - Chairs: Craig Bishop and Zoltan Toth
2:00pm Predictability, Probability and THORPEX: Leonard Smith
2:15pm How Can We Best Combine Forecasts for Added Value?: Liam Clark
2:30pm Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: Jochen Broecker
2:45pm An Assessment of the Applications of the NCEP Ensemble Prediction System in South Africa: Warren Tennant
3:00pm The North American Ensemble System: Zoltan Toth, Jean-Guy Desmarais, et al
3:15pm-4:15pm Poster Session 2 (Cont.)
4:15pm From MOS to eMOSL Generalizing Model Output Statistics for Full Ensemble Forecasts: Devin Kilminster
4:30pm Singular Vectors and Markov Chains in Regional Ensemble Forecasting: Martin Charron
4:45pm The Space-time Deformation Ensemble Generation Technique: Craig Bishop
5:00pm Initial Perturbation for NCEP Ensemble Forecast System: Mozheng Wei, Zoltan Toth, Dick Wobus and Yuejian Zhu
5:15pm Huge Ensemble Hindcasts on the Earth Simulator: A Case Study: Wataru Ohfuchi
5:30pm-6:30pm Session 8. Predictability and Dynamical Processes: Higher Latitude Processes - Chair: Heini Wernli
5:30pm Dynamical Processes Related to Cyclone Evolution Near Greenland: Jón Egill Kristjansson
5:45pm An Object-Oriented Approach to Best Member Selection: Towards Adaptive Ensemble Forecasting: George Craig and Christian Keil
6:00pm Analysis of Different Forecasts of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Norway: Einar M. Einarsson, Haraldur Ólafsson and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
6:15pm Structure, Mmorphology and Energetics of Polar Lows: A Numerical Study: Hiroshi Niino
6:30pm Adjourn
THURSDAY
8:30am-10:30am Session 9. Predictability: Models and Model Errors - Chair: Michael Morgan
8:30am Global to Local Weather Forecasting Using an Adaptive Unstructured Grid Model: David Bacon
8:45am A Synoptic/Dynamic Model of Low Frequency Variability with Application to Subseasonal Prediction: Klaus Weickmann and Edward Berry
9:00am Developing New Research and Operational Tools for Improving Fire Weather Forecasting: Joseph Charney
9:15am High Resolution Global Simulation of High-Impact Weather: Takeshi Enomoto
9:30am Evaluation of GFS Model in Predicting the Daily and 3-Day Total Precipitation Over Ethiopia: A Case Study: Dawit Gezmu Mengesha
9:45pm Dynamical Core Design: A Neglected Thrust Toward Increasing NWP Skill Several Days Ahead: Fedor Mesinger
10:00am Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Balance State and Its Adjustment Processes in the Presence of Diabatic Heating: Potential Application to Data Assimilation: Christian Page, Peter Zwack and Nicolas Chapelon
10:15am Predictability of Extra-Tropical Cyclone: Initial Uncertainty and Model Uncertainty: Hongyan Zhu
10:30am-11:00am Start of Poster Session 3
11:00am-12:30pm Session 10. Predictability and Dynamical Processes: Flow Regimes and Extended Range Prediction - Chair: Carla Cardinali
11:00am Cool Season Regime Transition and Its Impact on Precipitation in the NE United States: Heather Achambault
11:15am Global Occurrences of Extreme Precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Observations and Predictability: Charles Jones
11:30am Interactions Between Large-scale Tropical Convection and High-Impact Midlatitude Weather in the Week-2 Range: Mitchell Moncrieff
11:45am Modeling and Predicting Subseasonal Variability: Building a Bridge Between Weather and Climate: Duane E. Waliser
12:00pm Ensemble Prediction System for Weather Regimes with a Simple GCM: Guillem Candille
12:15pm The Unusal Movement of Typhoon Gading and Its Predictability: Carina Lao
2:00pm-3:15pm Session 11. Predictability and Dynamical Processes: Diagnostics and Interpretation - Chair: Dehui Chen
2:00pm Improvement of Model Initial States Using PV Inversion: Philippe Arbogast
2:15pm Diagnosis and Dynamics of the "Forecast minus Analysis" PV fields: Huw Davies
2:30pm Mesoscale Convective Vortices and Their Effect on 1- to 2-day Forecasts of Rainfall: Chris Davis
2:45pm Characteristics of Upper-Level Cyclogenesis Precursors: Sarah Kew
3:00pm The Influence of Large-Scale Dynamic and Diabatic Processes on the Production of Extreme Sensible Weather Events in West Africa and Europe: Peter Knippertz
3:15pm-4:15pm Poster Session 3 (Cont.)
4:15pm-6:15pm Session 11. Predictability and Dynamical Processes: Diagnostics and Interpretation - Chair: Alan Thorpe (Cont.)
4:15pm A Climatology of Rossby Waves - Results and Perspectives: Conny Schwierz
4:30pm Mechanisms for the Development of Locally Low Dimensional Atmospheric Dynamics: Istvan Szunyogh, M. Oczkowski and D. J. Patil
4:45pm Diabatic Rossby Waves and Explosive Cyclogenesis: Heini Wernli
5:00pm Singular Vectors Computed with a Flow-Dependent Analysis Error Covariance Norm: Ayrton Zadra and M. Buehner
5:15pm Study of High Impact Weather Events in China in Recent Years: Sixiong Zhao and Jianhua Sun
5:30pm Weather Impacts and Predictability in Southern and Eastern Africa: Augustine Kanemba
5:45pm DIONYSOS, a Fully Balanced Diagnostic Tool for Studying Weather Systems, and Its Potential Role in THORPEX: Peter Zwack
6:00pm General discussion on predictability research within THORPEX
6:15pm-7:00pm Invited Presentation and Discussion
7:00pm International Co-operation and Role of THORPEX in the Developing World: A. Kignaman-Soro, Director General, African Centre of Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD)
FRIDAY
8:30am-10:45am Session 12. Results from the A-TRec, and Proposed Future Thorpex Campaigns - Chair: Tetsu Nakazawa
8:30am Overview of the North Atlantic TReC: Bruce Truscott
8:45am Comparison of Observation Targeting Predictions During the (North) Atlantic TReC 2003: Alexis Doerenbecher
9:00am ETKF Observation Targeting for the NA-TReC: Gudrun Nina Petersen
9:15am Diagnostics of ATReC Super Obser. Impact on ECMWF Analysis: Carla Cardinali
9:30am Observation Impact during the North Atlantic TReC - 2003: Rolf Langland
9:45am Impact of NA-TReC Extra Observation on JMA Global Forecasts: Takeshi Iriguch
10:00am Impact of the TReC Additional Data in the ARPEGE Model: Nadia Fourrie
10:15am Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Case Studies of Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind Sensors Validation during the 2003 North Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign and the Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS II): Taumi S. Daniels
10:30am On Asian THORPEX Regional Campaign (AsTReC): Tetsuo Nakazawa
11:00am-12:45pm Session 12. Results from the A-TRec, and Proposed Future Thorpex Campaigns (Cont.)
11:00am The German Priority Program PP 1167 "Quantitative Precipitation Forecast": Volker Wulfmeyer, Gerhard Adrian, Andreas Hense, Christoph Kottmeier and Clemens Simmer
11:15am Field Campaigns Proposed by the North American Regional Committee: Dave Parsons
11:30am Proposed THORPEX-AMMA Collaborations: Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Chris Thorncroft and Dave Parsons
11:45am The Atlantic Seedling Hurricane Experiment: Greg Holland, Presented by Chris Thorncroft
12:00pm Targeted Wind Lidar Observations During the North-Atlantic-THORPEX Regional Campaign (NA-TReC): Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann, Stephan Rahm, Rudolph Simmet, Oliver Reitebuch, Reinhold Busen and Ulrich Schumann
12:15pm-12:45pm Discussion on Proposed Future Field Campaigms - Chair: Dave Parsons
12:45pm End of Meeting |