Workshop: The THORPEX Pacific Predictability Experiment
NOAA Western Regional Center Campus at Sand Point, Seattle, Washington
Day 1: JUNE 6th
9:00 am Welcome and Goals of the Workshop: David Parsons
9:10 am Session 1: The Influence of the Pacific on Downstream Predictability: How are Poor Pacific Initializations and Other Problems Degrading Forecast Value?: Session Chairs: Carolyn Reynolds and Michael Morgan
10:30 am Discussion
11:30 am Session 2: What Major Scientific and Technical Issues Could Be Addressed by a Pacific Predictability Experiment? Session Chairs: Peter Webster and Scott Sandgathe
- New Approaches to Data Assimilation: Greg Hakim and Pierre Gauthier
- Adaptive Observing Strategies (In-situ targeting, satellite thinning and selection techniques, improving the backbone observing system, selection-based targeting): Rolf Langland; Zoltan Toth (parts 1, 2, 3), Carla Cardinali, David Richardson
1:15 pm Session 2 (cont.): What Major Scientific and Technical Issues Could Be Addressed by a Pacific Predictability Experiment?
2:00 pm Discussion of scientific and technical objectives
4:00 pm Session 3 (cont.): New Observing Platforms for a Pacific Predictability Experiment
- New in-situ sounding techniques (rocket sondes, smart balloons and driftsondes): Steve Businger, Roland Stull and Terry Hock
4:20 pm Discussion that includes the previously covered topics, aircraft platforms, remote sensing plus novel use of operational systems
5:20 pm Adjourn
Day 2: June 7th
8:45 am Session 4: Connections: Chris Velden and Tim Miller
10:50 am Session 4 (cont.): Connections
11:15 am Discussion of proposed connections and collaborations
1:15 pm Session 5: Towards an Agreement on the Priorities of a Pacific
- Predictability Experiment? Moderator: David Burridge and Roland Stull
- Panel discussion: 6 members for 5 minutes each, followed by plenary discussion: Panel members: Chris Snyder, Tom Hamill, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Pierre Gauthier, two to be announced
2:45 pm Session 6: Constructing the Specifics of a Pacific Predictability Experiment (plenary discussion) -- Moderators: David Parsons and Cliff Mass
- Question 1: What forecast periods and observing/forecasting regions should the experiment stress?
- Question 2: Research that should precede the experiment (i.e.; the role of OSSEs and should this experiment stress them far more than in the past; studies of forecast errors and their societal impacts; studies of the dynamics and regime dependence of major busts, etc.)?
- Question 3: Link to the user community and forecast demonstration of societal benefit?
- Question 4: How can such an experiment be funded? How can we make use of traditional and non-traditional resources?
- Several individuals will be invited to present strawman proposals of how this project can be organized.
3:30 pm Session 6 (cont): Constructing the Specifics of a Pacific Predictability
Experiment (plenary discussion led by moderator)
4:15 pm Session 7: Next Steps: (Plenary Discussion)
Assuming we will proceed, how should we organize the writing of an experiment description? What documents are needed by NSF, by THORPEX, etc.? What kind of organizing committee should be put together? When will we meet next?
5:30 pm Adjourn |