February
2007
Guest
Column
Climate Change and Islands: Are Scientists Serving Society?
Ilan Kelman. |
One of the biggest dangers of global warming
is sea level rise. As glaciers and ice sheets melt, they
add to theamount of water in the ocean. In addition, as
the ocean absorbs heat from rising global temperatures,
it swells as a result of thermal expansion, the tendency
of matter to increase in volume when heated.
Between 1870 and 2004, sea levels rose by about 20
centimeters (8 inches), with accelerated rates during the
final 50 years of that period. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change assessment released earlier this month
predicts seas to rise 18-58 cm (7-23 in) by 2100; other
recent research suggests a greater rise, up to 88 cm (35
in).
In late December 2006, rising seas did something unprecedented
when they entirely washed away an inhabited island. The
island, Lohachara, was situated in India’s Sundarbans,
a mangrove delta where the Ganges River empties into the
Bay of Bengal. It was home to 10,000 people who evacuated
before the sea swallowed up their home.
And on the other sides of the world, in Alaska and
the South Pacific, islanders have already moved farther
inland or are preparing to abandon their islands altogether
in the face of rising seas and erosion.
Ilan Kelman, an ASP postdoc in SERE’s Center
for Capacity Building, researches vulnerability, risk,
and disasters, with a special emphasis on islands and coastal
areas. As a guest columnist for this issue of Staff Notes
Monthly, he shares his thoughts about the role of atmospheric
scientists within the context of islands and climate change.
More on Ilan’s
work.
Islands are romantic, mysterious, dazzling, tranquil, and
exquisite. Or so the myths tell us. For me, reality often
matches myth. The isolation and marginalization of islands
betrays a beauty and allure which has led me to focus much
of my research on island sustainability, particularly related
to reducing vulnerability to atmospheric extremes.
Despite the inherent vulnerabilities of small and isolated
populations, islands also inspire through the solutions that
they provide to the rest of the world. Islands yield tight
kinship networks and a strong sense of community, which help
their inhabitants tackle challenges rapidly and cohesively.
Rather than traditional economies of scale, diseconomies
of scale—that is, economic disadvantages to increasing
the scale of production—and economies of smaller scales
are advantageous for island livelihoods. Traditional island
knowledge, which is vanishing amidst global cultural homogeneity,
still provides adept skills for adjusting to sudden events
and long-term trends.
UCAR photographer Carlye
Calvin shot this photo of a small island off the
coast of Antigua during a 2005 field project. |
Climate change, though, could pose difficulties beyond
islanders’ abilities to cope. Economic and population
centers of many islands and island groups are being impacted
through extreme weather events plus longer-term creeping
environmental changes. Sea-level rise is not the only scenario
that could cause island destruction. Other possibilities
include devastating cyclones (comparable to Cyclone Bebe,
which inundated Tuvalu in 1972, and Cyclone Heta, which flattened
Niue’s infrastructure in 2004), changes in ocean currents,
depleted fisheries, and ocean acidification. The potential
for island abandonment is being forced onto the international
scientific, development, and sustainability agendas.
The movements have already started. In July 2004, the international
media reported the world’s first climate change refugees
from the island village of Shishmaref, Alaska, who moved
inland due to sea-level rise and thawing permafrost. Then,
in December 2005, the international media again reported
the world’s first climate change refugees, but this
time from the Lateu settlement in Vanuatu, an island chain
in the South Pacific. These islanders also moved inland due
to sea-level rise plus more frequent flooding. The proliferation
of “firsts” suggests that we must give more scientific
input into these discussions, policies, and actions.
Recent precedents exist for island evacuations, mainly
from volcanic eruptions, and the cases have been extensively
studied. In most examples, long-term relocation was unsuccessful
because the islanders chose to return, even when the volcano
continued menacing. That could be considered a positive long-term
result because the island society remained intact and responded
to the challenge even though the islanders were living in
a possible danger zone. After all, everywhere on Earth could
be considered a possible danger zone, with the potential
for flash floods in Boulder, earthquakes in Boston, and hurricanes
in New York or Washington, D.C. If people wish to remain
in the face of such threats, fully understanding the consequences,
should they be forced to leave their homes and identities?
How should atmospheric scientists contribute to a situation
in which islanders wish to stay on their climate change–affected
island until they must run or die? Should we actively promote
debate on possible impacts, given our and their knowledge
of weather and climate? Or should we stay with physical science
and let others—social scientists, development agencies,
politicians, and more—lead the way? What would the
social impact be, on islanders and on scientists, from formally
investigating, publicizing, and being operationally involved
in island abandonment decisions?
Physical scientists potentially have an immense amount
to contribute to these ethical and policy debates, from ensuring
that correct scientific information is available and used
to explaining what is not known and why that is not known.
They can also provide a scientifically rational perspective
alongside other equally important views, and translate technical
terms into easily understood language.
Naturally, care is essential when we become involved. For
example, terming the issue “abandonment” or “permanent
evacuation” has more emotive connotations than “relocation” and “permanent
departure.” Language is powerful, with our choice of
words translated from and translated to as important as the
medium and manner of communication—especially considering
that some languages are inherently more emotive than others
and that some languages might not be able to express the
full range of connotations from the various phrases.
As scientists, we must always consider the interpretation
and application of our work. We should also consider our
responsibility to society in order to ensure that our science
is applied properly. •Ilan Kelman
On the Web
More on Ilan’s
work.
In this issue...
New
data center to be based in Cheyenne
Climate
Change and Islands: Are Scientists Serving Society?
Snow
closures: A look behind the scenes
Random
Profile: Justin Watt
Images
by NCAR scientists on display
Delphi
Question: Cafeterias trans-fat-free?
Just One Look
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