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February
2005
ISSE
reflections on the tsunami
On December 26, the word “tsunami” took
on added meaning for people around the world as giant waves
killed more than 250,000 people in Southeast Asia and East
Africa. Caused by an earthquake off the coast of Indonesia,
the tsunami was a geologic, not atmospheric, event. Still,
scientists in the Institute for the Study of Society and
Environment (ISSE) have expertise in a
handful of tsunami-related areas,
including human responses to natural disasters, the politics of early warning
systems, coastal hazards and vulnerabilities, and coral reefs.
Staff Notes Monthly talked with
Susi Moser, Joanie Kleypas, and Mickey Glantz about their thoughts on the
aftermath of the waves.
The city of Meulaboh on the island of
Sumatra, Indonesia, was hit hard by the tsunami. (U.S.
Navy photo by photographer’s mate 3rd Class Jennifer
Rivera.)
Susi Moser |
Susi Moser
A geographer by training, Susi studies the human dimensions
of global environmental change, with emphases on coastal
hazards management and climate change impacts on coastal
systems.
She notes that extensive development along the coasts of
Indian Ocean rim countries bolstered the tsunami’s
capacity for destruction. “A disaster is only a disaster
when humans put themselves or things they value at risk,” she
says.
News stories after the disaster claimed if mangrove forests
hadn’t been cleared to make way for shrimp farms and
other development in Southeast Asia, these woody plants growing
in the tidal zone would have helped dissipate the giant waves
before they hit human settlements farther inland.
Susi, however, is uncertain whether they would have weakened
such an exceptional tsunami. “If you have a 40-foot
wave, but only a 10-foot wide mangrove belt protecting the
coast, that’s not going to help you a lot. You have
to look at the size of the protection versus the size of
the tsunami,” she says.
She notes that affected countries will have the opportunity
to limit their vulnerability to future tsunamis as well
as to predicted sea-level rise as they begin making decisions
about how and where to rebuild. “I think that this
is the critical period, because human psychology is that
people want to rebuild and reconstruct their lives exactly
as they had them before to establish normalcy,” she
says. “In order to take advantage of this window of
opportunity, I truly hope that people will draw on experts
and make wise decisions about where and how to rebuild.”
Joanie Kleypas
Joanie Kleypas |
Like mangroves, coral reefs help weaken a tsunami’s
force and protect
the beach.
“Some of the reefs can be really big, sturdy structures,” says
Joanie, a marine ecologist/geologist who specializes in the
interactions between coral reef ecosystems and climate. “They
slow waves down and dissipate energy.” Human-caused destruction
of coral reefs prior to the tsunami likely allowed the waves
to cause more damage ashore in certain places, she adds. Reefs received a fair amount of press shortly after the tsunami,
with reports saying the waves damaged them severely. “The
news reports have been exaggerated,” says Joanie, who
has compared reports from colleagues and researchers in the
field to mainstream news stories. “Overall, the damage
to reefs is not as bad as what happened to coastal areas
on land.” She cites a rapid assessment by Thai researchers
in the Andaman region that reveals that less than 15% of
175 reef sites were badly damaged, and 40% suffered no damage
at all.
Joanie says a reef is naturally adapted to handle water motion
and waves, with its most delicate corals located on the back
side that faces away from the incoming tide. The worst damage
to reefs in Southeast Asia was caused not by the tsunami
itself, but by sediment and debris from shore that washed
back over reefs and buried them. Damaged reefs will regenerate
over time, depending upon how extensive the damage is.
Coastal communities leveled by the tsunami, Joanie says,
should rebuild in ways that manage sediment run off and pollution
better in order to protect their reefs, and should also consider
building farther from the beach. “This could be an
opportunity to lay the groundwork for a better infrastructure.”
Mickey Glantz
Mickey Glantz |
As the world’s attention slowly turns away from the
relief efforts, the United Nations is pledging dollars and
laying groundwork to create a better tsunami warning system
for the Indian Ocean. The U.N. Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization has proposed a network of deep-sea
buoys and regional communications centers that would cost
$30 million and go into operation by the middle of next year.
“I would have started on the other end,” says Mickey,
who studies the interaction between climate, society,
and the environment. He also is an expert on early warning
systems for natural disasters.
Mickey cautions that rather than rushing into building the
physical components of an expensive new tsunami warning system,
we should take a closer look at the communication, coordination,
and interpretation of current warning systems. According
to an Associated Press report, staff at the Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center in Hawaii said they tried to warn Indian Ocean
nations about the possible effects of the earthquake, but
they were not equipped to monitor that part of the world
and didn’t even have phone numbers for the right officials.
“It’s like a tree falling in the forest. If no
one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?” Mickey
asks. “It’s the same for an early warning system.
If people don’t hear it or know what to do, what’s
the use?”
Mickey points out that building an early warning system is
a popular political response to a disaster because it shows
people that their government leaders are taking action. But
often
governments subsequently don’t take
the warning systems very seriously.
“They’re going to build this humongous system,
but that’s only half the problem. The other half is getting
the word to people who are affected,” he says. He adds
that poor people forced to live in marginal areas are at the
greatest risk from natural disasters.
Scientists who make disaster forecasts can’t just sit
back after their strictly scientific work is done, but must
also play a part in informing the public, Mickey says. “Part
of scientists’ responsibility is to make sure their
messages aren’t just laid on a table.”
— Nicole Gordon
  
  
These images, from a NOAA animation
of the tsunami, show the site of the earthquake and the resulting waves. View the animation
and other information
from NOAA.
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An
eye on Washington
Random profile:
Shu-Peng “Ben” Ho
Short
Takes
NCAR
to survey scientists, engineers
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