Predictability and chaos in the geosciences

An NCAR-sponsored workshop, to be held in Boulder, Colorado, on 7-10 
September, will examine the idea of predictability in the geophysical 
sciences from a broad perspective. The workshop, convened by Joseph 
Tribbia of NCARŐs Geophysical Turbulence Program, is being supported 
by special funds from the National Science Foundation.

The unifying theme for this cross-disciplinary workshop is the loss of 
information intrinsic in the dynamical behavior of the media studied in 
each discipline.  The atmospheric sciences, because of their responsibility 
for forecasting the weather, have traditionally led the way in the study of 
the general issue of predictability.  However, many, if not most, physical 
and biological systems can behave in a chaotic manner, and issues of 
predictability are common to a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this 
context, the relevance of forecasting is secondary to the common 
behavior of information loss in which initially tight probability 
distributions with high information content about any aspect of the 
system evolve inherently to broad distributions with much lower 
information content, so that only probabilistic aspects of the system can 
be ascertained.  Such behavior is common to the physical, chemical, and 
biological systems active in the geosciences; a communal discussion of 
this behavior and the methods of analysis and information use across the 
geosciences is the overlying purpose of the meeting.  

An introductory session will cover history, mathematical predictability 
and chaos, measures of predictability and chaotic behavior, probabilistic 
implications, and fluid turbulence.  There will be two sessions covering 
atmosphere and ocean convection; two- and three-dimensional, 
quasigeostrophic, and mesoscale predictability; and climate change.  
Later sessions will deal with predictability and chaos in solar physics 
(including solar cycles, helioseismology, and linkages to the 
magnetosphere); general geophysics (magneto-dynamo, planetary 
motions, and fractures and quakes); system predictability (ocean-
atmosphere, glacial cycles, solar-terrestrial, predictability of ecosystems 
and chemical systems, and cyclic behavior); and observability and 
controllability (data use and assimilation and control of chaotic systems). 

The workshop is open to everyone. For more information on scientific 
aspects, contact Tribbia; for administrative information, including a map 
and list of area hotels, contact Hope Hamilton.