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NCAR News Release
NCAR Explores Link Between Climate Change and Air Quality
BOULDER--The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other
institutions are launching a far-reaching project this month to help the
government keep polluted areas in compliance with Clean Air Act standards
in the event of rising global temperatures. The three- year project will
focus on modeling air quality in the United States in the middle of the
21st century.
The National Science Foundation, Environmental Protection Agency, and
U.S. Forest Service are funding the project.
As the climate warms, the population increases, and forests and croplands
are altered, scientists expect the potential for air pollution in coming
decades will change in significant and sometimes subtle ways. Policymakers,
already concerned about curbing industrial emissions, also must factor
in the possibility of more wildfires and the differing impacts that tree
plantations and natural forests have on the formation of pollution.
"When conditions are changing, all your strategies have to be adjusted,"
explains NCAR scientist Alex Guenther, who is part of the research team.
"For the government to make sure that air quality doesn't worsen,
it needs to take into account changes in temperature and vegetation as
well as industrial emissions."
Guenther will look into the impact of higher temperatures on plant emissions
of certain chemicals, known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The
compounds, which smell of pine and other familiar vegetation, are harmless
in a natural setting. But they can react with human-generated industrial
emissions of nitrogen oxides to form ground-level ozone, an important component
of smog.
Research has shown that VOC emissions increase by 15% to 25% with every
1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) temperature increase, potentially
leading to more smog. When natural vegetation is cleared to make room
for plantations of fast-growing trees, such as poplars, VOC emissions
can increase as much as 20 times.
The team plans to answer several questions, including
The researchers will use the NCAR Climate System Model, along with scenarios of future wildfires and land use, to simulate the atmosphere over regions of the United States during a 10-year period in the middle of this century. They will compare their projections with a national EPA analysis of air pollution in 1996 and a model of air quality in 2000, when wildfires burned extensively. The team will explore air quality across the country using coarse, 36-kilometer (22-mile) grid cells in the models. In the Northwest and upper Midwest, however, it will use much finer-scale, 12-kilometer (7-mile) modeling. The Northwest is of interest both because climate change could affect its extensive wooded and agricultural areas and because its dense forests could fuel major wildfires. The upper Midwest has contended with significant pollution levels and, like the Northwest, has large wooded and agricultural areas. Researchers will then turn to an even finer-resolution grid (4 kilometers or 2.5 miles) to look at air pollution in certain urban areas, such as Chicago. This will enable them to capture the nuances of how local lake or sea breezes can nudge pollution plumes over areas adjacent to cities. "The result of this project will be a greater understanding of how future climate may impact urban and regional air quality," Guenther explains. "The knowledge should be very valuable for long-term planning efforts to improve and maintain clean air well into the future." Participants include scientists from Washington State University, the University of Washington, and the U.S. Forest Service, as well as NCAR. |
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Industrial emissions can combine with chemicals from trees and other plants to aggravate smog. (Photo courtesy Carlye Calvin.) |
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Industrial emissions can combine with chemicals from trees and other plants to aggravate smog. (Photo courtesy UCAR/NCAR/NSF.) |
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research and UCAR Office of Programs are operated by UCAR under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation and other agencies. Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any of UCAR's sponsors. UCAR is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer.
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Prepared for the web by Carlye Calvin Last revised: Friday, October 17, 2003 9:45 AM |
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