1995-17 For Release: September 1995 Contact: Joan Vandiver Frisch Manager, NCAR Media Relations Boulder, CO 80307-3000 Telephone: 303-497-8607 E-mail: jfrisch@ucar.edu HURRICANES PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE: TWO NEW PERSPECTIVES AND CURRENT SCIENTIFIC CONTACTS This year is setting a record pace in tropical storm formation across the Atlantic Ocean, with 12 storms already named by late August and the seasonŐs midpoint--September 10--yet to arrive. Below are updates on two new lines of hurricane study being pursued by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. See the end of this release for information on these and other current contacts in hurricane research and forecasting. ----Hypercanes--a Possible Mechanism for Species Extinction----- Could a series of colossal hurricanes make dinosaurs and other species extinct? A computer model created by Richard Rotunno (NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division) and colleagues indicates that possibility. In a paper that appeared on July 20 in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Rotunno joined lead author Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and three other scientists to argue that hypercanes--theoretical superstrong hurricanes-- may have been a crucial agent in past extinctions. During the Late Permian period, about 245 million years ago, some 96% of all species disappeared. A later event extinguished 75% of all species. Giant meteors or volcanic eruptions have been cited as possible causes. The authors contend that neither type of event could inject enough long-lasting debris into the stratosphere to affect global climate on the scale needed for mass extinction. However, meteors or undersea eruptions might have been able to heat swaths of ocean a few tens of kilometers wide to temperatures as high as 50 degrees C (122 degrees F). Rotunno took a hurricane model he created with Emanuel and tested it under these conditions. The superheated patches of ocean in the computer model quickly generated tropical cyclones with central pressures as low as 200 millibars and wind speeds as high as 300 meters per second (675 miles per hour, approaching the speed of sound). After about two days, the storms settled into a steady state with winds still around 150 mps (340 mph). Such storms, according to the authors, could produce vast sheets of stratospheric clouds that would alter radiation patterns and perhaps trigger ozone depletion. Although Rotunno notes that the model was not designed to run for such extreme conditions, he believes the results are physically reasonable. -----Was Hurricane Andrew a Prelude to Future Coastal Disasters?----- Hurricane Andrew raked south Florida in August 1992, causing some 40 deaths and $30 billion in damage. Yet it could easily have been worse. Had Andrew struck the Florida coast only 20 miles farther north, the damage could have been as much as $75 billion, according to several analyses. Had it struck areas along the East Coast or Gulf Coast where evacuation plans are inadequate, many more people could have died. These are among the messages for society contained in "Hurricane Andrew in South Florida: Mesoscale Weather and Societal Responses." The report was released in June by Roger Pielke, Jr., a visiting political scientist at NCARŐs Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (ESIG). Pielke provides an overview of the human factors that interacted with the physical reality of Andrew to create the disaster that occurred. The report is the first in a series in which Pielke examines several weather disasters, including the eastern U.S. "superstorm" of March 1993 and the Midwest flooding of that summer, from both scientific and societal viewpoints. Although improved warnings since the 1950s have reduced the death toll from U.S. hurricanes, damage costs continue to rise. Andrew struck an area (Dade County) with the countryŐs most stringent hurricane building codes, yet the resulting damage made it clear that codes were not being fully enforced, says Pielke. In fact, homes built since 1980 suffered more damage from the same impact than did older homes. "Even with strict enforcement," says Pielke, "Andrew still would have been the costliest hurricane in history. Thus, it is indeed frightening to consider the potential impacts of an Andrew-like storm on other coastal communities." Despite the improvements in warnings, large loss of life could still occur from a U.S. hurricane, according to Pielke. The evacuation of 700,000 people for Andrew was judged a success. However, the indelible memory of that storm may result in more residents than necessary evacuating ahead of the next storm. Ironically, this could impede the flight of those most in danger. One study noted by Pielke predicts that, due to the post-Andrew effect, evacuation times in the Florida Keys may increase from 37 hours to as much as 80 hours for a major hurricane. According to Pielke, the busy 1995 hurricane season is a "window of opportunity" for coastal communities to examine their vulnerability to severe weather. "The important questions are: How vulnerable are we? What decision processes are in place in regard to hurricanes? How can we use the fundamental wisdom from 500 years of hurricane experience in North America, instead of ignoring or forgetting it?" In his report, Pielke includes a checklist developed in Lee County, Florida, that includes more than 176 important decisions each community vulnerable to hurricanes should make. "In some coastal areas, especially low-income ones," Pielke warns, "the evacuation plans are outdated." Copies of PielkeŐs report are available from Jan Stewart, NCAR Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, Box 3000, Boulder CO 80307-3000, 303-497-8117, jan@ucar.edu. -----Current Contacts on Hurricane Research and Forecasting----- Hypercanes and hurricane modeling: ---Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 617-253-2462 or email: emanuel@texmex.mit.edu Hurricane research and community awareness: ---Howard Friedman, NOAA Hurricane Research Facility, AOML 305-361-4319 or email: friedman@aoml.erl.gov Hurricane preparedness and societal factors: ---Roger Pielke, Jr., NCAR Environmental and Societal Impacts Group 303-497-8111 or email: rogerp@ucar.edu Hurricane forecasting: ---National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida 305-229-4470 (recorded advisory and a menu of telephonenumbers for more specific information for the press) ---William Gray, Colorado State University (CSU) email: barb@tutt.atmos.colostate.edu ---Christopher Landsea, CSU 303-491-3569 or email: landsea@downdry.atmos.colostate.edu After Sept. 15, 1995, Chris Landsea can be reached at the NOAA Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Florida, at 305-361-4400. NCAR is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. -The End- Writer: Bob Henson, UCAR Communications